More Predictions for 2018

According to the Economist and the Korea Economic Daily , the fortune telling industry in South Korea will soon be a $3.7 billion dollar business… A little troubled? Me too. Yet in spite of the fact that I don’t endorse crystal balls or tarot cards, I do understand humanity’s innate desire to see into the future.  Joining the ranks of Gwern, Scott, and Quentin, I decided to document my predictions for 2018. My hope is that by testing and learning from these estimates, my own observations will become a bit more plausible than any given at smoky Saju den in Hongdae.


We shall see.



Antartica’s ice sheets will develop further cracks detectable by Thermal Infrared Sensor.  80%

More extreme weather phenomena will occur, particularly strong hurricanes in the Caribbean and Latin America. 70%

Terrorists will not release viable bioweapons in the developed world in 2018.  90%

There will be a terrorist attack killing at least 15 people in a large city in the developed world in 2018. 90%

The price of bitcoin will exceed $15,000 dollars by the end of the year. 85%

The price of ethereum will sit stably above $2,500 dollars by the end of the year. 60%

At least 8 more very well known public figures will be named in response to the #MeToo campaign in 2018. 80%

Donald Trump will remain in office, despite his low approval ratings and general incompetence. 90%

Donald Trump’s approval ratings will hover around 40% at the end of the year. 60%

No serious health-care reform legislation will pass. 80%

Populist movements will gain more traction in Europe, particularly in Scandinavia over the course of 2018 by affecting the platforms of mainstream parties. 80%

Marijuana will be legalized at least two more countries in 2018. 40%

The opioid crisis will become more severe in developed countries in 2018 in terms lives claimed. 90%

North Korea will not harm any international civilians with the launch of ballistic missiles in 2018.  80%

Significant armed conflict will not occur in the South China Sea in 2018. 80%

Bashar Assad will remain president of Syria. 90%

Sanctions imposed upon Russia will remain in place. 75%

Putin will win the 2018 Russian Election. 99%

There will continue to be massive, large scale protests concerning the Russian government. 95%

There will be over 50 arrests due to these large scale Russian protests. 80%

Navalny will undergo another assassination attempt. 55%

In 2018, China will publish at least two papers on germline editing of human embryos.  60%

The FDA will approve another form of gene therapy. 55%

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