2018 Predictions

Gwern, SSC, and others have been making predictions because its fun and in order to test their calibrations. I have decided for the first time to try and do the same.

Here it goes and post comments if you disagree with a particular bet or want to make a market out of it:

DeepMind will “beat” Dota or LoL

60%

A germline edit therapy happens in the next year

20%

The US stock market will fall by over 10%

60%

The North Korean missile ‘crisis’ will continue not being a crisis

70%

No major war between any developed nations will occur

90%

There will be a terrorist attack killing over 200 people in a developed country

60%

There will be a 9/12 killing over 5,000 people

20%

Bitcoin will no longer be the largest cap crypto currency

30%

Ethereum will pass $3k

20%

ETH will become the largest cap crypto

5%

There will be a killer application for blockchain used by over 30 million people

10%

There will be a major cyberattack affecting public infrastructure in a country

20%

Donald Trump will remain in office

70%

Democrats will win the House in 2018 midterms

80%

I will still be working on intelligence enhancement by the end of the year

90%

I will be pursuing genetics as the most high potential enhancement mechanism

80%

I will get at least 1000 views on a blog post

60%

No significant new geopolitical action is taken to address global warming

90%